Snapshot: Abhisit’s Popularity

10 Nov
2009

In an ASTV-Manager article, PAD’s Panthep Puaphongphan provides an interesting look at Abhisit’s popularity over the last seven months. Note that these figures are from only one source (ABAC Poll). Below is a screen capture image of the original article, followed by my translation.

9-11-2009 23-10-05

(Translation)

Date of Survey Abhisit Thaksin (unsupportive of the government) No Comment
12 March 2009 50.6 23.6 25.8
14 April 2009 58.2 15.9 25.9
27 July 2009 32.9 34.0 33.1
27 September 2009 39.7 27.1 33.2
26 October 2009 21.6 25.0 53.4
6 November 2009 68.6 21.1 10.3

It can be seen that, before the current Hun Sen-fuelled Thai-Cambodian dispute, Abhisit’s ratings were the highest in April, just after the government and the army successfully put down the Red Shirt Songkran riot. The fact that his popularity shot up to 68.6% after the recall of the Thai Ambassador to Cambodia appears to vindicate the longstanding notion that Thais like a decisive, alpha male leader who is prepared to make tough or perhaps even ruthless decisions. As Bangkok Pundit and Siam Report point out, however, there are a number of problems with the latest ABAC poll and I would encourage readers to read their posts on the issue. And even if the result of the latest poll is accurate, I doubt that such high popularity will last long. Even the Democrat’s Korbsak Sabhavasu admitted on Twitter that “emotional popularity is short lived”.

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1 Response to Snapshot: Abhisit’s Popularity

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BKK Farang

November 11th, 2009 at 4:34 am

Thaksin’s numbers look about right, given that his party won about 35% of the electorate in the last elections (if you combine the by elections with the general elections). However, Abhisit’s numbers vary so much that I suspect that there is a lot of “noise” in those numbers. While people’s opinions are swayed by events like the Songkran riots and Cambodian Advisor fiasco, I really can’t see an almost 50% swing being accurate.

As you said, even if the numbers are there, emotional swings are generally not long lasting.

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