Federico Ferrara: Is Thailand Headed for Civil War? *UPDATE*

(credit: motifake.com)

Federico Ferrara, an academic from the National University of Singapore and regular commentator on Thai politics, has written a Facebook note speculating whether there will be a civil war in Thailand. He argues that while a full-scale civil war is unlikely, there is real potential for more violence and street fighting. Key excerpt:

Is Thailand at risk of finding itself in this situation? Possibly. The risk, however, is less of a war between civilians (yellow v. red) than it is that of a war between different parts of the Thai state. Most ominously, the violence on April 22 and on April 10 shows that there are deep splits within the security forces (between most of the police and parts of army on one side and the rest of the army on the other). Given the firepower and strength of the two sides, the conflict definitely has the potential to create mass casualties.

That being said, I don’t think that a real “civil war” per the definition is especially likely, in the sense that the two sides of the security forces are unlikely to engage in open warfare with one another. The greater likelihood is that there might be more acts of sabotage by one/both groups but only sporadic and relatively low intensity fighting between one another in riot situations.

I do not know whether the full text has been published elsewhere, so for the time being you can read the rest of his note on Facebook here.

UPDATE: Bangkok Pundit has now got the full text of Ferrara’s note, so head here to read the rest.

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