Somsak Jeamteerasakul on Red Shirts and Thaksin

I think that both you and Somsak are too eager to give the redshirts up to Thaksin. Just because Thaksin is riding on the backs of the redshirts does not make him their leader. He has the means to put on all sorts of events and to hire all sorts of people The redshirts will take advantage of the events and the people Thaksin hires, and not only the people that Thaksin hires, will take advantage of the people gathered at them for their own and their employers’ aims.

The political class in Thailand offers no representation for the redshirts. They must use whatever vehicles present themselves in the political arena, as they in turn use Thaksin.

I hope that they can accept the fact that they are utterly without friends outside of their own ranks. That people who claim to sympathize with them often, universally so far, have had their own axes to grind, even in academia and, lo! in the blogosphere.

The redshirts must, as all of us must, develop their own leadership bottom-up if they, and we, are to see our interests represented anywhere. There is never any shortage of those willing to harness their and our energy and call it a “mandate” for their own ends.

I agree with your tour theory that the red shirt protests would have turned out differently were it not for the M-i-B. However, I believe the difference would have occurred back on 10 April, during the original dispersion attempt by the government. The only thing that prevented the military from dispersing the red shirts at that time is that they engaged unexpected military resistance. Otherwise, the military would have continued, perhaps with rubber bullets, until the red shirts were forced into submission.

The military would probably have resisted using live ammunition, which would make martyrs of the peaceful protesters, but as you pointed out, there was little sympathy for the ‘terrorists’ when it was over, in spite of the fact that the M-i-B were neutralized by the assassination of Seh Daeng before the Live Fire Zone was established.

Hence when the basis of what they wanted was handed to them on a plate the opportunity slipped through their fingers.

I agree that the redshirts should have pressed for a date certain for dissolution and election and stayed or gone home depending upon the government’s response.

I don’t think the outcome would have been much different because I don’t think that dates certain were forthcoming.

So that was a “mistake” whether made on purpose or not, by “leaders” loyal to whatever cause.

Why was there simply not an election of the course to take among all the redshirts present, if the “committee” was in disarray?

The redshirts need to take a lesson from this : don’t follow leaders, watch the parking meters.

Leadership generated from below, not above.

Recourse to the people directly when the “leaders” need guidance.

[...] [...]

Earlier Somsak was arguing that red shirts miscalculated reactions to govt violence, they assumed that as soon as shots are fired the govt would fold just like in 1992. Somsak argued that it was a dangerous strategy on the part of reds – provoke violence in order to win.

I don’t know who came up with it first but last Thaksin himself was chest pumping that he would fly in and personally lead the reds if soldiers open fire. This year he went shopping instead.

Official red leadership is only a small part of the overall movement. Reds are just their street arm, they also have political arm, military arm, media arm, academic arm, anti-monarchy republican wing, international lobbyists, lawyers, and people who pay for all of this. They are all connected only through Thaksin and it gives each part plausible deniability in case the other group does something wrong.

Don’t forget that Veera and Jatuporn were ministers in Thaksin’s cabinets (“ministers are just my helpers”) and Nattawut was a spokesman for Samak and Somchai – they are not grassroot leaders, and there are rumors they profiteered nicely from running UDD for three years and red shirts didn’t get paid as much as promised.