(photo credit: Ratchaprasong on Flickr)

Chang Noi writes in The Nation about another red-versus-yellow battle in the upcoming Bangkok by-election (to be held on 25 July):

[…] In short, this constituency is a true marginal and so the result will be heavy with meaning.

And that meaning is colour-coded. Panich Wikisreth is not so much a Democrat as a yellow, a protégé of Kasit Piromya, a fanatical yellow-shirt. The New Politics Party was somehow persuaded to exit the contest so that the yellow vote would not be split.

Kokaew Pikulthong is not so much a Pheu Thai member as a red. He took a prominent role in the recent demonstrations, and is now in jail on the ridiculous terrorism charge. Panich has a background in local government and fully qualifies as a member of the establishment, an ammat. Detention confirms Kokaew as a member of the unfree masses, a phrai. The symbolism is exquisite.

Pheu Thai pretty much wrong-footed everyone else when they picked Kokaew to run in this by-election. Earlier they even contemplated choosing the more high-profile Natthawut Saikua but some technicalities stood in the way. Nonetheless, that the party decided to make a prisoner their candidate for a public office at all is quite astonishing in the Thai context. And of course, the symbolism wouldn’t be complete without a reference to Bobby Sands, which was duly made by the (still free) red leader and PT MP Jatuporn Prompan (see here).

If the choice of Kokaew shows how close the red shirts and Pheu Thai are to each other, the PAD’s withdrawal from the contest reveals how close the Democrats still are to the yellow shirts. Despite the occasional verbal spats between the two, it’s pretty much undeniable that — in Bangkok at least — the PAD and the Democrat Party rely on broadly the same support base. As Chang Noi points out in the article, the presence of a candidate from the PAD’s New Politics Party in this by-election would unnecessarily split the anti-Thaksin vote.

One thing is clear: it is reassuring to see the two colours, for once, willing to stay calm and allow people to speak their mind at the ballot box. Here’s hoping that the result will be honoured and respected by all sides.

h/t on_off_course

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The New Politics Party, a product of the PAD’s decision to venture into the realm of electoral politics, recently captured the headlines with the selection of Sondhi Limthongkul as its leader. While the party itself was formed several months ago amid huge fanfare, it is its role on the political landscape from now on that will likely be a constant topic of discussion, not least among the increasingly nervous members of the ruling Democrat Party.

Despite predictions by some commentators that the NPP will face difficult times ahead, I would argue that, compared to other small and medium-sized parties currently in existent, the NPP does possess some important strengths that can enable it to become a force to be reckoned with when it comes to elections. Here I will present three key reasons why I think the NPP has the potential to be a major player in Thailand’s parliamentary politics.

1. Sondhi Limthongkul

No matter how one looks at it, Sondhi Limthongkul is the NPP’s greatest asset. A UCLA graduate, he possesses outstanding oratory skills and is highly knowledgeable of both domestic and foreign affairs. The significance of his role in the whole yellow, anti-Thaksin camp is widely acknowledged. His weekly talk show, which was taken off air under Thaksin in 2005 but continued to draw large crowds nonetheless, kick-started a powerful mass movement that later evolved into what we know as the People’s Alliance for Democracy today. Just like how the number of protestors at a UDD rally tends to peak during Thaksin’s phone-in, the highlight of a major PAD rally is almost always when Sondhi is on stage. It came as no surprise that the PAD, or at least those involved in the process of choosing the NPP’s leader, voted overwhelmingly for him to be the party’s head. Now, as the NPP leader, his ability to energise supporters around the country will provide a major boost to the party’s chance of success.

2. Media Empire

Sondhi’s rhetoric alone would have been nowhere near enough to topple Thaksin had there not been a channel through which the PAD’s messages could be spread to people, whether living in Thailand or abroad. And Sondhi’s Manager Group certainly has plenty of those. In addition to the daily newspaper and the consistently popular ASTV-Manager website, the ASTV satellite network has grown to become a household name and is one of the most effective communication channels at the PAD’s disposal. We all know what could happen when Sondhi decided to unleash all the power of his media empire on someone (previous targets include not only Thaksin but also the Democrat-led government from 1997-2000 and former Finance Minister M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula). More recently, the launch of the English-language TAN Network and the Northeast-oriented Isaan TV represents the Manager Group’s growing ambition and confidence. The fact that the red shirts, in setting up its own TV station, essentially copied ASTV’s model is a testament to the Manager Group’s remarkably successful use of media.

Although, as Michael H. Nelson points out, the law strictly prevents the owning of shares in a media company by a political office holder, legal loopholes will certainly be exploited, allowing the Manager Group to continue attacking opponents as well as mobilising supporters to participate in NPP’s activities. It would be no surprise if other political parties secretly wished they were in control of such a vast and powerful media conglomerate.

3. Wealthy, Powerful and Mighty Backers

Throughout its existence, the PAD has been known for being associated with some wealthy and influential figures in the country. Usually, for a political party to be successful in Thailand it cannot rely on grassroots backing alone but it also needs support from military men, top bureaucrats as well as from well-off private individuals. When Sondhi’s early anti-Thaksin movement started to gain momentum, the income of his various companies rose sharply as donations, revenues and funds from undisclosed sources flowed in. Other aspects of the PAD’s link with society’s top brass are less clear, but it has been noted many times that the PAD’s criminal cases seem to progress so slowly through the country’s system. In addition, the very public display of support for the yellow shirts by certain members of the very top pretty much speaks for itself although this blog post will not go into that. In sum, political power brokers know only too well that the NPP cannot be underestimated in this regard.

Coming Up: New Politics Party – Part Two: 3 Reasons Why It Will Fail

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